Failed Guarantees - Health Care



  • Big Problems Ahead - As bad as the projections for Medicare and Medicaid are, ($36.3 and $16 trillion respectively), the Congressional Budget Office is projecting that the situation will be twice as bad ($52 trillion?) for the rest of the health care system.

    Realistically that won't happen. Instead the number of people covered by private health insurance will shrink dramatically.

    Since 2000 the percentage of the population covered by employer-based health care plans has fallen by 5%. During roughly the same time period (1999-2008), the cost to employers and to individuals (co-pays and deductibles) rose almost 120%.

    Layoffs and cut backs by employers are likely to have dropped that number another 2% or 3%.

    The current stimulus plan includes $30 billion to extend Medicaid to the unemployed as well as $87 billion to reduce the state's portion of current Medicaid expenditures. Together those number total amount to almost 15% of the 'stimulus' spending.

    The chart below illustrates the falling percentage of the population covered by private health insurance.

    This graph gives the reason.

  • Where Does the Money Go? - The breakdown of health care expenditures over the last 10 years has remained relatively stable with hospital and physicians costs amounting to over 50% of the total. The `other` categories `Other Personal Health Care` and `Other Health Spending` account for about 30% of the remaining half.

    Prescription drug costs have risen about 30% (from 6.9% to 10.1%) during the period 1997-2007. That time frame featured the addition of a prescription drug benefit to the Medicare program.

    During that same period, nursing home and home health care fell as a percentage of the total from 10.6% to 8.5%.

  • Spending Concentrated - In any given year, health care spending is concentrated among a very few patients. Over 20% of the total spending goes toward the care of just 1% of the population.

    Almost half (47.7%) is spent on just 5% of the population.

    By contrast, it only takes 3% of the total to take care of most of the country (50%).

    Expenditures are also concentrated on five costly conditions. Almost a third of the total expenditures are spent on heart conditions, cancer, trauma care, mental disorders, and pulmonary (lung) conditions. While spending on heart conditions is the highest (8.3%), per patient spending is highest on cancer care.

    When total medical spending for people with these conditions are added together, it accounts for almost half of total medical spending.

    The rise in the number of people being treated for these conditions has accounted for more than half of the increase in medical spending. A part of that is the rise in the percentage of people classified as obese, along with an expansion of diagnostic and treatment capabilities.

  • Lifestyle Choices - While the number of people that smoke has fallen to below 20%, those classified as either overweight or obese has risen steadily.

    According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), over 33% of the U.S. population is considered obese, while about half that number (16%) of the nation`s children are obese.

    Obesity increases the risk of many diseases and health conditions, including:

    • Coronary heart disease
    • Type 2 diabetes
    • Cancers (endometrial, breast, and colon)
    • Hypertension (high blood pressure)
    • Dyslipidemia (for example, high total cholesterol or high levels of triglycerides)
    • Stroke
    • Liver and Gallbladder disease
    • Sleep apnea and respiratory problems
    • Osteoarthritis (a degeneration of cartilage and its underlying bone within a joint)
    • Gynecological problems (abnormal menses, infertility)

    While the CDC doesn`t list it, a number of studies have shown a link between obesity and mental disorders.

    U.S. Obesity

  • Spending Doesn`t Equal Improved Outcomes - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that about 1/3rd of the $2.2 trillion spent on health care could be saved.

    The CBO found that there was basically no relationship between a quality of care measure and the total spending. Then CBO Director Peter Orszag said, `roughly $700 billion each year goes to health care spending that cannot be shown to improve health outcomes.

    Orszag cites cost differences between the Mayo Clinic and UCLA Medical Center. Costs per Medicare beneficiary during their last six months of life at the Mayo Clinic were $26,000 while the cost at the UCLA Medical Center was almost twice that amount.

  • Health Care Disconnect - There is a massive disconnect between who pays for health care and who benefits. The result is that all the incentives in the system are designed to raise spending.

    Among the people who pay for health care, but have little direct benefit are employers, employee, and taxpayers. Employers pay for health care through their sponsorship of health insurance for their employees as well as their Medicare matching payments. Since employer health care payments are tax deductible, the taxpayers also are paying a portion of those costs. To an extent, uninsured taxpayers are subsidizing health insurance for employer supported plans.

    Employees support Medicare recipients through the Medicare deduction. They support Medicaid recipients through their income and other tax payments. Finally, they indirectly pay for their own health insurance through lower wages. Finally, they may pay some of their own health care costs, either as partial payment of their health insurance and/or co-pays, deductibles, or other payments.

    Almost all taxpayers support Medicare and Medicaid recipients as well as Federal military and civilian retiree health care.

    Finally Medicare recipients pay certain deductibles as well as any supplementary insurance that they might purchase.

    Patients pay about 15% of the total of health care expenditures. Except for that 15%, all of the payors receive no direct benefits from the payments that they make.

    The remaining 85% of payments are made by private health insurers (36%), Medicare (22%), Medicaid (16%), and other governmental and private program (11%). Again, those companies and agencies don`t receive any direct benefit from the payments that they make.

    The flip side of this disconnect is that the patients who receive the care only pay a small fraction of the direct cost of their care. In many situations, they pay nothing at all. For that reason, their incentive to shop between health care providers and to choose less expensive treatments is reduced.

    That incentive also applies to health care providers. Their incentive is to choose treatments that maximize the potential health care benefit. That not only benefits the patient but it is likely to be both financially and professionally beneficial to the provider.

    Similarly most people don`t have any direct financial incentives or costs that apply to their lifestyle choices. Some studies suggest that increased state and Federal cigarette taxes have resulted in lower smoking rates. For most people there are no direct financial consequences of unhealthy lifestyle choices and few, if any, financial incentives for healthy choices.

    Federal regulations prohibit spending health savings account monies on diet or exercise despite the likely payoff in terms of much better health.





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